Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 145.631769 169.305528 196.617098 230.688906 272.380598 322.154628 386.706856
2025-11-23 112.295326 140.413508 175.991212 225.084605 292.312767 383.036112 518.082818
2025-11-30 99.129299 131.159876 174.754445 240.082127 338.511893 486.564720 737.127272
2025-12-07 86.526012 119.437763 166.783971 242.455168 365.593810 568.376142 952.259429
2025-12-14 77.950628 111.535664 162.202267 247.889639 397.337073 665.053915 1229.909788
2025-12-21 70.058887 103.235716 155.292686 247.628853 418.596781 748.610269 1518.103467
2025-12-28 66.782395 101.470839 158.197048 264.086599 473.422735 912.957757 2065.200357
2026-01-04 63.276041 98.756507 158.934836 276.544474 523.476332 1084.885098 2736.950935
2026-01-11 59.825498 95.627273 158.372908 286.243301 570.194999 1266.833334 3567.392516
2026-01-18 56.086032 91.508646 155.375852 290.407892 605.685828 1435.171983 4493.739865
2026-01-25 52.298241 86.856439 150.722522 290.201684 630.837522 1586.395819 5500.536172
2026-02-01 48.289199 81.375208 143.779380 283.803231 639.036592 1692.354103 6433.225404
2026-02-08 44.594751 76.253401 137.202150 277.771800 648.647528 1814.301371 7627.201136
2026-02-15 41.260657 71.501756 130.831191 271.209454 655.520161 1932.969949 8989.055333
2026-02-22 40.586227 71.804952 134.881897 290.269779 741.651142 2386.945473 13232.563821
2026-03-01 38.591351 69.288727 132.632634 293.307238 780.915510 2687.093816 17169.550978
2026-03-08 37.073096 67.580696 131.921820 300.199817 835.210802 3092.689044 23290.579408
2026-03-15 35.169213 64.899448 128.719732 299.871628 865.472231 3412.388046 29807.486661
2026-03-22 34.817823 65.426855 132.888253 320.770338 979.584073 4266.987090 47940.886195
2026-03-29 34.118160 65.136752 135.104574 336.640633 1082.468400 5181.553923 75436.218853
2026-04-05 33.236517 64.363101 136.059724 349.025514 1177.665552 6174.990140 118069.302986
2026-04-12 32.034167 62.767986 134.800277 354.351212 1245.886747 7079.203195 175796.884260
2026-04-19 30.644824 60.635027 131.950885 354.087408 1289.608043 7864.022113 250419.576694